Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi di Aceh

Abstract

 Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor kopi di Aceh. Sumber data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang berupa time series dari tahun 2001 – 2017. Model analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi linear berganda, uji F, uji t dan uji R². Hasil analisis regresi diperoleh Y = -9,365 - 2,825_NT + 2,616_HKDN – 1,734_HKLN + 1,077_PK. Hasil uji-F variabel dependen dengan variabel independen diperoleh nilai Fcari=3,605 sedangkan Ftabel=3,41. Hasil Uji-t menunjukkan nilai tukar mata uang Dollar terhadap Rupiah t_cari=2,622 sedangkan t_tabel= 2,160 dimana H_a ditolak H₀ diterima artinya nilai tukar mata uang Dollar terhadap Rupiah berpengaruh nyata terhadap volume ekspor kopi di Aceh. Hasil analisis terhadap harga kopi dalam negeri t_cari=2,348 sedangkan t_tabel=2,160 artinya harga kopi dalam negeri berpengaruh secara nyata terhadap volume ekspor kopi di Aceh. Hasil analisis terhadap harga kopi luar negeri t_cari=-3,543 sedangkan t_tabel=2,160 artinya harga kopi di luar negeri berpengaruh secara nyata terhadap volume ekspor kopi di Aceh. Hasil analisis terhadap produksi kopi t_cari=1,313 sedangkan t_tabel=2,160 dimana H_a diterima dan H₀ ditolak artinya produksi kopi tidak berpengaruh secara nyata terhadap volume ekspor kopi di Aceh. Nilai koefisien determinasi (R²) menunjukkan bahwa 54,6% ekspor kopi di Aceh dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar, harga kopi dalam negeri, harga kopi luar negeri dan produksi kopi sedangkan sisanya sebesar 45,4% dipengaruhi faktor-faktor lain.

Kata kunci : Ekspor Kopi, Nilai Tukar, Harga Kopi Dalam Negeri, Harga Kopi Luar Negeri, dan Produksi Kopi

Abstract. This study aims to look at the factors that influence coffee exports in Aceh. The data source used is secondary data in the form of time series from 2001 - 2017. The analysis model used is multiple linear regression, F_test, t_test, and R² test. Regression analysis results obtained Y = -9,365 - 2,825_NT + 2,616_HKDN – 1,734_HKLN + 1,077_PK. F-test results for the dependent variable with the independent variable obtained F_test = 3.605 while F_table = 3.41. The t_test results show the exchange rate of the Dollar against Rupiah t_test = 2.622 while t_table = 2.160 where H_a is rejected and H₀ is accepted meaning the exchange rate of the Dollar against Rupiah has a significant effect on the volume of coffee exports in Aceh. The results of an analysis of the domestic coffee price t_test= 2,348 while t_table = 2,160 means that the domestic coffee price significantly affects the volume of coffee exports in Aceh. The results of an analysis of overseas coffee prices t_test = -3.543 while t_table = 2.160 means that the price of coffee abroad has a significant effect on the volume of coffee exports in Aceh. The results of the analysis of coffee production t_test = 1,313 while t_table = 2.160 where H_a is accepted and H₀ is rejected, meaning that coffee production has no significant effect on the volume of coffee exports in Aceh. The coefficient of determination (R2) shows that 54.6% of coffee exports in Aceh are influenced by the exchange rate, domestic coffee prices, foreign coffee prices and coffee production while the remaining 45.4% is influenced by other factors.